Australian Business

2121 Melbourne Property Market Crash is Ahead

Our colleague Angelique Johnson just dropped us a note pointing out that her next one, in New Zealand, is starting tomorrow.But for those of us who are ever mindful that the more news stories we dig up about the apparently cursed area, where gold miners died during a warm, empty summer, the better — but aware also that this is a famously chilly market — Angelique’s not the only one panicking.

Already, Kevin Allen, a real estate agent at Anderson Craig Hill, has “confessed” that his auctioneer has been spraying the audience with air-conditioning units “every time there’s an auction”.

Scott Dickinson, with E.A. Dickinson, believes this incident may well mark the beginning of the end of the 2121 Property market Crash. “I hope not! But the last thing we need now is the real estate agents saying there’s nothing to buy,” he said in an email exchange.

Sobering thought from an enthusiastic party:

This video looks at how the property market has performed in 2020 and whether property prices will decline, or crash, as some have predicted. ANZ, for example, has predicted that property prices in Melbourne will fall by up to 15%, with Sydney property prices falling by marginally less.

>Gordon Gray, a real estate agent, has collected over 100 real estate collectives for the last two decades in Melbourne to share experiences on what often happens in a property crash. All need to learn about dealing with a new market which used to be in our favour, as property prices were up to four times above inflation, which meant more house was being bought than rental stock.

But “Since the start of this world financial crisis,” Mr. Gray said, “property prices have dropped over one-third of what they were four years ago. It was this first month of January 2009 where they nearly fell through the floor and we did not even get a full price, let alone allow for the interest rate drop.”

The performance of real estate, Mr. Gray said, has been “further dampened by the Government changing some of the negative gearing rules. The good news is that the market is rebounding for small to medium investments. Buyers are being very sensible and price negotiations have improved.”

Our sources in this dry market include Tom Ryan, the CEO of a real estate agency that did a worldwide real estate class trip in 2001. It cost them, plus a 250-dollar booking fee, so money was tight. He called the event a “big success” and told us he knew this was going to be a hot market when it broke up in 2006.

For those of us who have been pushing for a retrial on the case of Gordon “Slim” Graham, the unlikely rise and fall of his 4,400-acre property estate may further encourage us on our quest to find the beginning of the 2121 Property market crash.

“We were particularly excited about “The Age” article because in all these six years it has been largely denied that any such event occurred,” Mr. Graham said. He suggested that the real estate people, who have “always said a recovery was just around the corner,” are now quietly acknowledging the once “exotic property” market is, for all practical purposes, over.